by Charles Lyons
THE DEATH OF THE FRINGE SUBURB –New York Times
SPRAWLING SUBURBS GROWTH FALLS TO HISTORIC LOW AMIDST HIGH GAS PRICES -Associated Press
AMERICAN’S ROMANCE WITH SPRAWL MAY BE OVER –USA Today
People wondered, “Will the sprawl go on forever?” Apparently not.
Late last year and into the early months of 2012, I began seeing headlines like the ones above.
“Drive through any number of outer ring suburbs in America and you’ll see boarded up and vacant strip malls surrounded by vast seas of empty parking spaces. These forlorn monuments to the real estate crash are not going to come back to life even when the economy recovers. And that’s because the demand for the housing that once supported commercial activity in many exurbs isn’t coming back, either. By now, nearly five years after the housing crash, most Americans understand that a mortgage meltdown was the catalyst for the great recession facilitated by under regulation of finance and reckless risk taking …. It was predominantly the collapse of the car-dependent suburban fringe that caused the mortgage collapse.” (New York Times, Christopher B. Leinberger 11/25/11)
“…residential exurbs that sprouted on the edge of metropolitan areas are seeing their growth fizzle …. Gas prices are discouraging long commutes. Young singles prefer city apartments. Two years after the recession technically ended and despite some signs of economic recovery, there’s a reversal of urbanites’ decades-long exodus to roomy homes and distant towns. The annual rate of growth in American cities and surrounding urban areas has now surpassed that of exurbs for the first time in at least 20 years spanning the most recent era of sprawling suburban development.” (AP, Hope Yen 4/5/12)
“The financial and foreclosure crisis forced more people to rent. Soaring gas prices made long commutes less appealing and high unemployment drew more people to big job centers. As the nation crawls out of the downturn, cities and older suburbs are leading the way. Population growth in fringe counties nearly screeched to a halt in the year that ended July 1, 2011. By comparison, counties at the core of metro areas are growing faster than the nation as a whole. … The foreclosure, the vacancies, the uncompleted roads, it’s uncomfortable out there. The glitz is off.” (USA Today, Nasser, Overberg 4/5/12)
“Simply put, there has been a profound structural shift — a reversal of what took place in the 1950s when drivable suburbs boomed and flourished and center cities emptied and withered.” (NYT, Leinburger)
“The shift is durable and lasting because of a major demographic event: the convergence of the two largest generations in American history, the baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) and the Millennials (born between 1979 and 1996) which today represent half of the total population.
Many boomers are now empty nesters and approaching retirement. Generally this means they will downsize their housing in the near future. Boomers want to live in a walkable urban downtown, a suburban town center or a small town according to a recent survey of the National Association of Realtors.
The Millennials are just now beginning to emerge from the nest …. This coming of age cohort also favors urban downtowns and suburban town centers — for lifestyle reasons and the convenience of not having to own cars. Overall only 12 percent of future homebuyers want the drivable suburban fringe houses that are in oversupply …. For too long, we have overinvested in the wrong places. It’s time to, instead, build what the market wants: mixed income, walkable cities and suburbs.” (NYT, Leinburger)
“This could be the end of the exurb as a place where people aspire to go when people are starting their families,” says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institute. “So many people have been burned by this … first-time home buyers, immigrants and minorities took a real big hit.”
There is a lot to digest here. I’ll just ask a few questions:
What does this mean for local churches in the exurbs, in the suburbs, in the inner suburban ring, in the city center?
What about the newer churches planted on the urban fringe in the years just before the 2008 economic collapse?
What of the churches that built new buildings riding the growth wave, and then saw 2008 come while still carrying significant debt?
What does this mean for the next generation of church planting?